The more China advances, the more it seems to forget that its progress has been achieved through moderation and composure. Last week’s showdown with Japan over the custody of a Chinese fisherman strengthened the impression that power brings arrogance. After halting official contacts, Wen Jiabao, the usually mild-mannered Chinese premier, warned Tokyo to brace for severe consequences. At the weekend, Japan rejected Chinese demands for compensation and on Monday said it might call for compensation of its own. But, emboldened by the eruption of nationalism, Chinese experts, journalists and bloggers have been calling for economic sanctions – and military force to protect the country’s trawlers in the East China sea.

China’s apparent assertiveness remains more an expression of weakness than of strength. The spat demonstrates that territorial frictions increasingly flare up as a consequence of economic needs. In this case, decreasing stocks of blue fin tuna have driven adventurous trawler captains deeper into disputed waters. In the same way, growing demand for energy is putting pressure on China to enforce its claims over contested offshore oilfields in the East and South China seas, estimated to harbour more than 200bn barrels of oil. Also, because of rapidly depleting water reserves, the border conflict with India could soon fuse with fierce rivalry over Himalayan rivers. In spite of a water-sharing agreement, China has continued building dams and irrigation projects on the upper stream of the Brahmaputra.

China’s neighbours have not missed the appeals of its leaders and experts to equip the People’s Liberation Army to defend national development and overseas economic interests. For them it is still an open question whether China’s maturing military diplomacy and emerging blue water navy will serve regional security or help build a new sphere of influence.