On New Year's Eve 2007, the Financial Times, in its customary look at the year ahead, declared that “the US will skate along the brink of recession in early 2008, but should avoid tipping over the brink”. In retrospect, we can ruefully enjoy that forecast not because it proved to be wrong – although it was – but because it was wrong even as it was published. The recession actually began in December 2007, just as the FT was announcing that it wouldn't begin at all. To modify the old quip, “prediction is very difficult, even when it's not about the future”.
2007年新年前夜，英國《金融時報》在其例行年度展望中表示，“2008年初，美國將瀕臨衰退邊緣，但應該不會墜下懸崖”。現在回過頭看，我們可能對這種預測感到遺憾，不是因為事實證明它是錯誤的——盡管它的確是錯誤的——而是因為它在發表之際就是錯誤的。衰退實際上開始于2007年12月，而當時英國《金融時報》宣稱危機根本不會發生。對老話改造一番就是：“預測是非常困難的，即便不是預測未來。”