Now that's a stress test. The Chinese banking regulator reckons the nation's lenders may struggle to recoup about a quarter of the Rmb7,700bn ($1,100bn) they've lent to investment vehicles owned by local governments (LGIVs). If Rmb1,770bn of loans to LGIVs – vital conduits of China's huge economic stimulus – do indeed go sour, that'd be almost four times the system-wide stock of non-performing loans at the end of June.
這才是壓力測試。中國銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管機構(gòu)估計,中國各銀行貸給地方政府融資平臺的7.7萬億元人民幣(1.1萬億美元)中,可能有大約四分之一難以收回。若真有1.77萬億元人民幣貸給地方政府融資平臺(中國巨額經(jīng)濟刺激的關(guān)鍵渠道)的貸款變成不良資產(chǎn),那將幾乎是整個銀行體系6月底不良貸款存量的4倍。
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