It looks as if the global economy is heading for a serious slowdown this year. Emergency austerity programmes in some countries will put a drag on growth. Inventory adjustments will run their course. The effects of tax policies that steal demand from the future – such as the US “cash for clunkers” scheme, tax credits for home buyers or cash for green appliances – will fizzle out. Labour market conditions will remain weak. The slow and painful deleveraging of balance sheets and income-challenged households, financial institutions and governments will continue.
看起來今年全球經濟將出現嚴重放緩。部分國家實施的緊急財政緊縮計劃將拖累經濟增長。庫存調整將如常進行。那些“竊取”未來需求的稅收政策——例如美國的“舊車換現金”計劃、面向購房者的稅收抵免(tax credit)、或是對環保電器的補貼政策——效應將逐漸消退。勞動力市場仍將萎靡不振。對于企業資產負債表、面臨收入壓力的家庭、金融機構和政府而言，緩慢而痛苦的去杠桿化過程仍將繼續。