Is pessimism about the eurozone overdone, as Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, argued last week?
When trying to answer that question, one should distinguish between the short-to-medium-term economic outlook and the long-term sustainability of monetary union. So let us disentangle, and focus on, the first of these only. What kind of recovery, if any, are we going to get?
During the first half of 2010, the eurozone enjoyed nominal short-term interest rates of near zero, a big fall in the euro-dollar exchange rate and an expansive fiscal policy. Those three factors contributed to a recent increase in industrial orders in Germany, and resurgent optimism in that country's business community.
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