The pillars of the Parthenon may be crumbling. But half a world away, the stone slabs of the Great Wall of China, the basalt arches of the Gateway of India, and even the Twin Towers of Petronas have rarely looked in better shape. As Europe grapples with glacial growth and cavernous deficits, Asian states have rather different problems. Awash with cash and thundering along at a pre-crisis clip, they are, if anything, in danger of overheating.
The term “decoupling” was never the right one to describe economies that, in the years leading up to the financial crisis, became ever more closely hitched to the west’s shopping cart. In the 10 years preceding the Lehman shock, Asian exports as a share of output actually rose, from 37 per cent to 47 per cent, making their economies more, not less, dependent on external demand. Yet, even though much of that demand vanished overnight when credit markets froze at the end of 2008, Asian economies barely drew breath before resuming their ascent. If not exactly decoupled, Asia has certainly been unruffled.
Asia ex-Japan – as brokers like to refer to Asia minus the slow, lumbering bit – are likely to grow by more than 8 per cent this year. Twelve months ago, that would have seemed improbable. Some of the most open Asian economies were winded by the sudden loss of external demand. But they have recovered with impressive speed. Singapore, which shrank 2 per cent last year – less than originally feared – will grow above 6 per cent in 2010. Malaysia, which lost 1.7 per cent of output in 2009, will find at least 5.5 per cent this year. Even Thailand, for all its tourist-scaring pitched battles, will grow by nearly 5 per cent in 2010, after contracting 2.3 per cent last year.