The world's photovoltaic industry is heading for a shake-out with big Chinese and US manufacturers of solar modules competing for dominance in Europe as smaller companies suffer from a collapse of prices and lower subsidies.

Executives speaking at the Italian PV Summit and trade fair in Verona last week were heartened by higher forecasts of demand for solar power made by the Paris-based International Energy Agency but they also warned of the dangers of a bubble forming in fast-growing Italy following the bursting of the Spanish market last year.

“We will see more consolidation of players, leaving a handful of very large manufacturers,” said David Hogg, head of European operations for China's Suntech Power, which plans to increase output to 1,250MW in 2010 from 700MW last year and is developing a new generation of high-efficiency Pluto panels.