Three new contracts in three days totalling more than $3bn: good news for Ericsson investors, used to a gloomy tone from the world's biggest telecoms equipment maker. Net income fell 65 per cent in 2009 and Ericsson refused to hazard a guess on whether things would improve this year, citing the continued caution of its customers. Its success this week does not signal an uplift on that front, though. If anything, the near-term outlook has darkened.

Take China, where two of the contracts were signed: $1bn from China Mobile and $800m from China Unicom. China is Ericsson's second biggest market and one of its fastest growing: last year sales rose 22 per cent as operators spent on infrastructure to support 3G roll-outs. But this week's contracts are merely continuations of existing agreements. Indeed, recent statements from Chinese operators suggest the market may be set to cool rapidly. China Mobile has said its capital expenditure on mobile will be 5 per cent lower in 2010; China Unicom said last week it would cut capex by more than a third. Credit Suisse now expects capex in China to fall about 25 per cent, almost double its previous assumption.

With that source of revenue growth dissipating and other emerging markets set to be mixed, Ericsson must look to the developed world. European operators are still feeling miserly, in spite of the growing wave of smartphone-driven data traffic set to jam up their networks. Eventually they will need to upgrade, much as AT&T is doing in the US. For a year or more, though, operators are likely to find ways to cope on the cheap. Ericsson investors hoping for a sustained winning streak should be prepared for a long wait.