Politics and markets interact in mysterious ways. This year, US political debate has revolved around healthcare. In the European Union, the issue of how to extricate Greece from its fiscal mess has crowded everything else out.
Both are boiling to a conclusion. But they have not had the market consequences that might have been predicted.
In Europe, the correlation between the euro and the default risk of Greek sovereign debt is almost perfect. At any sign that a bail-out for Greece is in trouble, such as the latest spat between Germany and France, the cost of insuring against Greek default rises while the euro weakens. It is now at its lowest against the Swiss franc since the euro was adopted in 1999.
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