Prudential's mega-bid for AIA is the sort of once-in-a-lifetime consolidation that can happen as a result of financial crises. The UK insurance group has taken advantage of the collapsed fortunes of its felled US rival, AIG, to snatch away its crown-jewel Asian operations – in spite of these being one and a half times its own size.
That Prudential has persuaded its bankers and investors to take the financial risk may seem astonishing. But the deal taps into a widely-held perception that the crisis has accelerated a pre-existing trend for financial power to shift eastwards. In his presentation to investors, Prudential's chief executive, Tidjane Thiam, illustrated the opportunity with tables showing the rates of gross domestic product growth and life insurance penetration for the countries in which AIA is present. For the most part these are characterised – as is much of Asia – by a mouthwatering combination of fast economic growth, high savings rates and low competition. This is the region in which growth is to be found, is the message. Why not invest in it?
It is too early to tell whether Mr Thiam has obtained a bargain. Even though AIG was under pressure to return cash to the US government and had limited options to raise it, the price looks high. There are not massive benefits to be wrung purely from putting the two entities together. But this is a deal that will ultimately work only if the growth rates he anticipates are achievable. If he is right, Prudential would appear to have transformed into an entity well designed for the financial future. The share of its operations that are in Asia will rise from less than 40 per cent to about two-thirds.