First the good news: UBS produced a better-than-expected SFr1.2bn profit in its fourth quarter, the Swiss bank's first since Oswald Grübel became chief executive a year ago. The turnround pared UBS's full-year loss to SFr2.7bn – from 2008's record SFr21.3bn loss – marking an early victory for Mr Grübel's cost reduction plan, although a one-off tax credit and reduced charges on UBS's own debt also helped. Now the bad news: outflows from the group's wealth management and Swiss banking operations nearly doubled to SFr33bn compared with the previous quarter, and SFr12bn leaked from its US wealth business. Mr Grübel hopes a return to sustainable profitability will restore clients' confidence. Yet wielding the scalpel might prove to have been the easiest part of creating “the new UBS”. Stemming the haemorrhage of rich clients might be harder to achieve.
After all, UBS's investment losses in the financial crisis and subsequent bail-out by the Swiss authorities unsettled investors and clients who last year withdrew SFr90bn. A litany of legal wrangles with US tax authorities over tax evasion and bank secrecy further harmed its reputation. Italy's tax amnesty, which has uncovered about €95bn of undeclared Italian funds held offshore, exacerbated UBS's outflows, as did its disposal of UBS Pactual in Brazil and adviser attrition.
Restoring profitability might help; so too would ridding the private bank of an indiscriminate asset-gathering mentality that once put market share growth before quality of service. Mr Grübel has done all this before, at Credit Suisse. Yet, in spite of his early delivery on cost cutting, investors marked down UBS shares by more than 5 per cent. It will take more than one quarter of profit and a clear rebound by its investment bank to earn their confidence too.