If Barack Obama had been told last November that the economy would have moved out of recession by July – as yesterday's gross domestic product numbers indicated – he might have broken out the champagne. Yesterday, however, the White House was more funereal than celebratory in keeping with the opinion of most voters.

For most Americans, the return to growth is a pure abstraction. Next week's jobless numbers, which is likely to see another 200,000 joining the unemployed, will be the more accurate reflection of the public's mood, which alternates between angry and sullen. Jobs growth always lags behind economic growth and forecasters project unemployment will climb from its current 9.8 per cent to 10.3 per cent by early 2010.

Since jobs and wages dominate most people's perception of the health of the economy, Mr Obama faces the awkward prospect that most Americans will still feel like they are in recession in the build-up to next year's mid-term elections. To that extent his difficulties are predictable. Remember George Bush senior, who was defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992 in the “economy, stupid” election even though the US had returned to growth several months before.