Letters of the alphabet may no longer be sufficient to describe the US economy's trajectory. With the almost certain return of growth in the previous quarter, it is not an “L” but not yet robust enough to be a “V”. The likelihood of a “W” also seems far-fetched without the sort of liquidity crisis seen last autumn. If sobering testimony by White House economic adviser Christina Romer is to be believed, it may resemble a square root symbol – flatlining at a low base. That is because the impact of fiscal stimulus may already have peaked, even with less than half the money spent.
英文字母可能已不再足以描述美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展軌跡。鑒于上一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)幾乎已成定局，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)的并不是“L”型復(fù)蘇，但也沒有強(qiáng)勁到足以實(shí)現(xiàn)“V”型復(fù)蘇。由于我們并未看到去年秋季出現(xiàn)的那種流動(dòng)性危機(jī)，“W”型復(fù)蘇的說(shuō)法似乎也有些牽強(qiáng)。如果白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)克里斯蒂娜?羅默(Christina Romer)提供的催人警醒的證據(jù)能令人信服，那么復(fù)蘇軌跡可能會(huì)像一個(gè)平方根符號(hào)：在一個(gè)很低的基礎(chǔ)上保持水平。其原因在于，財(cái)政刺激措施的影響可能已經(jīng)到頂了，盡管只花了不到一半的錢。