Sixty years ago, China was in a chaotic condition. Few people inside or outside the battered country would have bet much on its chances of survival over the long term. The devastating effects of Japan's invasion and occupation were visible from northern Manchuria to the southern border; the Soviet Union had shown no great faith in China's future as a viable state and was unimpressed by Mao Zedong's eccentric and personalised leadership style; Great Britain and France seemed still intent on shoring up their economic presence in Hong Kong and south-east Asia; Korea was divided and unstable; Tibetan policy was uncertain; the Chinese Nationalist forces were consolidating their anti-Communist bastion on Taiwan; and the US, though nominally neutral in China's protracted civil war, had clearly been disillusioned about the chances of China establishing any kind of viable democratic structure as the Communists tightened their hold over a population of close to 600m.
60年前，中國一片混亂，滿目瘡痍。無論是在國內(nèi)還是在國外，幾乎沒有人認為新中國能夠長期生存下去。從中國北部的滿洲里到南部邊境，日本侵略和占領(lǐng)的破壞性影響歷歷在目；即使是蘇聯(lián)，對未來中國能否自立也信心不大，對毛澤東古怪的、個人化的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)風格亦不太欣賞；英國和法國似乎依然打算維持他們在香港和東南亞的經(jīng)濟利益；朝鮮半島分裂而不穩(wěn)定；西藏政策充滿著不確定性；中國國民黨軍隊正在臺灣鞏固其反共基地；美國雖然名義上對中國曠日持久的內(nèi)戰(zhàn)保持中立，但隨著中共加強了對近6億人口的控制，美國顯然已對中國建立可行的民主架構(gòu)的可能性不再抱有幻想。