The rally for global stock markets, in which the FTSE All World index has risen about 67 per cent since its low in early March, showed signs of running out of steam last week as investors worried about the withdrawal of emergency financial support measures by governments.
Kevin Gaynor of Royal Bank of Scotland says uncertainty about the outlook for the economy will remain high even if the recovery continues, not least because emergency policy decisions have to be unwound.
He warns that lower trend growth rates are likely because basic risk management tells companies to invest less in the presence of uncertainty, so the economy's capital stock grows more slowly.