Is it easier to predict where Vodafone is heading over the next six to 12 months or what the Bank of England may do with interest rates?
The performance of individual securities is based not only on earning trends and forecasts, but on mercurial investor sentiment toward the related industry, the market as a whole, perception of risk and the current returns of risk-free investments.
Anticipating what Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank, was going to do when interest rates were 5 per cent and the British economy was rapidly sinking into recession, however, was a much easier call to make.
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