Most investment professionals I meet are no longer hesitant to talk of their experiences in 2008. The phenomenon is reminiscent of a group that, having survived a near-death experience, now feels the need (and has the confidence) to talk about it.

This is understandable. Last year's shocks have given way to a greater sense of stability in financial markets. Yet it would be wrong to conclude that we are returning to "business as usual". The next few quarters will be about the aftershocks, driven not by a financial system in disarray but by the lagged reactions of the real economy, the political system and the financial services industry.

At its most fundamental level, 2009 is about the interaction of three factors: the healing of financial markets, second-round economic and political effects and partial reconfiguration of the longer-term landscape. We face the challenge of navigating a bumpy journey to a "new normal". The answers to four basic questions are the key to addressing this challenge successfully.