Russia came through last autumn's liquidity squeeze better than expected. No large bank failed and the rouble's slow-motion devaluation, though costly for reserves, prevented bank runs that would have evoked memories of its 1998 default. Now for the second wave. With the economy contracting, real incomes falling and joblessness spiralling, non-performing loans are set to mushroom. Could the ghosts of 1998 still stir?
俄羅斯在去年秋季流動性緊縮期間的表現優于預期。沒有大型銀行倒閉，盧布的緩慢貶值雖然給外匯儲備帶來了慘重損失，卻預防了本來會喚起1998年債務違約記憶的銀行擠兌現象。現在迎來了第二波危機。隨著經濟收縮、實際收入下降和失業率攀升，不良貸款必然急劇增加。1998年的幽靈還會蠢蠢欲動嗎？
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