Four things come not back: the spoken word, the sped arrow, the past life and the neglected opportunity. Foreign banks should heed this Chinese proverb before hastily exiting its country of origin. So far, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of America and UBS, among others, have reduced their stakes in China's biggest lenders. This week, Goldman Sachs denied rumours it was selling its holding in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China.
Sure, the silver has to go if there is no choice. But for banks such as Goldman that do not need the capital, leaving China would be a huge strategic error. That is because the global balance of demand for financial services is shifting east. Western countries are over-banked and households must begin an extremely long and painful process of deleveraging.
China, on the other hand, is in completely the opposite situation, with wealth per capita just now reaching levels where financial assets begin to shift from cash deposits to more sophisticated banking products. What is more, the Chinese authorities understand that private sector investment – via asset managers and insurers, for example – must play a bigger economic role versus intermediation by the state.