A year ago, denial was still very much in the air at the World Economic Forum. The Davos consensus embraced a “small problems scenario.” Most believed that any recession would be confined to the US - and that it would be short and mild. A global recession was simply inconceivable.  In particular, a decoupled developing world - especially China-centric Asia - was thought to be largely insulated from any problems in the developed world and perfectly capable, in the view of many, of taking over as a new engine of global growth. And in light of a Fed-led policy stimulus, a US cyclical recovery was presumed to be just around the corner - and a pretty solid one at that. The financial system was not seen as an impediment to any of the above. In short, a year ago, the Davos consensus believed that every dark cloud had a silver lining.

Alas, there were nothing small about the problems of 2008. Any residue of denial was cracked by the worst financial crisis since the 1930s - a crisis that has triggered what appears to be the first outright contraction in overall global GDP in the post-World War II period. The major economies of the developed world - the US, Japan, and Europe - have all tumbled into their first synchronous recession of the modern era. And in once high-flying developing Asia, there isn’t an economy in the region that hasn’t slowed sharply or tumbled into outright recession.

Far be it for me to pre-judge the mood of this year’s gathering. But shocks invariably shake the confidence of any forecaster. If the past is any guide, I suspect that the prognosis of a shell-shocked Davos consensus will be shaped much more by the here and now rather than by any forward-looking stretch of the imagination. Largely on that basis, I expect that the mood will be rather dark at this year’s World Economic Forum.