For this year, people want to know whether China will grow at 8 per cent, the magic number deemed necessary to ensure social stability. That is the wrong question. China will grow at 8 per cent if its statisticians say so. Even if the pain of lower growth is felt on the ground, one isolated year of slowdown is unlikely to spark the popular rebellion some imagine. China's population still believes its government can deliver strong growth in the long run. Only if there were a number of years of sharply lower growth are there likely to be more than isolated disturbances.
對(duì)于2009年，人們關(guān)心的是中國(guó)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)8%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率。這個(gè)神奇的數(shù)字被認(rèn)為是確保社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的必要條件。但這個(gè)命題不對(duì)。只要中國(guó)的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家這么說，中國(guó)就會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)8%的增長(zhǎng)率。即使人們?cè)谏畹谝痪€感受到更低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率帶來的痛苦，僅僅一年的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩是不太可能像有些人想像的那樣引發(fā)民眾騷亂的。中國(guó)人依然相信，政府有能力實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。除非經(jīng)濟(jì)多年大幅減速，否則充其量也只會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些孤立的騷亂事件。