Her Majesty's question has sparked a series of ludicrous claims about the prescience of individual forecasters.

"Although bankers with their fancy MBAs appear to have been dumbfounded by the financial crisis, regular attendees to Gresham College's free public lectures in central London, were not," maintained one press release this month, citing a talk given in November 2002 by Avinash Persaud . But the lecture is as disappointing as the claims are inflated. "Despite record corporate bankruptcies, weak economies and a market meltdown, banks are generally safe" was Prof Persaud's conclusion.

Giulio Tremonti, Italy's finance minister, raised the predictive bar last week when he said Pope Benedict XVI was the first to foresee the crisis. A 1985 paper showed, according to Mr Tremonti, "the prediction that an undisciplined economy would collapse by its own rules".