The writer is co-founder and chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research
As global equities go deeper into bear market territory, it is important to recognise the unusual nature of this sell-off.
The pain so far has come largely from a contraction on the valuation placed on the more expensive stocks and their earnings prospects. This means we have probably only seen the first phase of this bear market.
With valuations having come down so far, the greatest risk to equities now comes from actual earnings falling short of current expectations. The next leg of the bear market is likely to be driven by earnings recessions, especially in the more cyclical stocks, sectors, and markets.
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