The boom of explosions echoing across Doha as night set in the Qatari capital initially suggested that the Middle East’s worst-case scenario was becoming a reality: the conflict between Israel and Iran had spilled over borders and threatened to engulf the region.

But as the dust settled on Monday it became clear Iran’s missile barrage at the US’s Al Udeid military base was telegraphed, with missiles intercepted and no casualties reported — a calibrated response that paved the way for Donald Trump to hours later announce a ceasefire ending the Israeli-Iranian war.

Yet the region is far from at peace. The truce — thrashed out in a couple of hours with terms not made public — is inherently fragile. Israel has vowed to respond “forcefully” to any violation; the Islamic regime said it was fully prepared “with their fingers on the trigger” to retaliate against any new attacks.