The US trade deficit in goods surged to a record high in March as companies rushed to stockpile imports ahead of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, prompting Wall Street economists to forecast that GDP shrank in the first quarter.
After the publication of official data showing a $162bn gap between imports and exports last month, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predicted a contraction in output in the first three months of the year. The balance between imports and exports is an important factor in calculating GDP.
The US Census Bureau figure was the highest goods deficit on records stretching back to the early 1990s and compared with $92.8bn for March 2024.
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