European leaders arrived at the Munich Security Conference this week beset by challenges from both east and west: the looming threat of an aggressive Russia, compounded by sudden confirmation of some of their worst fears about the direction of the US under Donald Trump.

In a double blow to Ukraine on Wednesday, Trump announced he had agreed directly with Vladimir Putin that talks would begin on an end to Russia’s war, while his secretary of defence Pete Hegseth laid out what the cost to Ukraine of that end would be. In comments closely matching some of Russia’s core demands, Hegseth told allies in Brussels that Ukraine’s territorial integrity was an “illusory goal”; there would be no Nato membership for Kyiv, and no US support for its future defence against Russia.

Promises of peace for our time, bought through appeasing an aggressor with the territory of its European victim, will do little to reassure those who have observed Russia’s preparations for further war. There can be few doubts that in the absence of credible security guarantees from the US, a respite from the grinding attrition will allow Russia to rebuild its land forces faster in order to resume fighting sooner — whether in Ukraine or targeting a Nato member state.