My 18-month-old feels his needs intensely, particularly those relating to strawberries. Similarly, investors today really, really want to know whether the US is in a recession, and although last week’s markets tantrum has mercifully ended, there is still some lip wobbling. But whereas I can judge whether my son has eaten enough (“that last one contains a worm”) the economic data is offering no such clarity. And a growing crop of “now-cession” indicators is only adding to the confusion.
我那18個月大的孩子對自己的需求感受非常強烈，尤其是與草莓有關的需求。同樣，如今的投資者也非常急切地想知道美國是否已經陷入衰退。盡管上周市場的情緒波動已經平息，但仍然有些余波未平。然而，雖然我能判斷出我的兒子是否吃飽了（“最后一個草莓里有條蟲子”），但經濟數據卻沒有給出同樣的明確信號。越來越多的“現衰退”指標反而使情況更加混亂。
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