Since the Biden administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, we have been worrying about a green industrial subsidy race. Talk about Chinese “overcapacity” has perpetuated that narrative. Competitive subsidies may entail a waste of real resources and taxpayers’ money. Tariffs on solar panels and electric vehicles risk spilling over into a wider trade war. 

But what if, over the next 12 months, the three main protagonists — the US, China and the EU — call it off? Though it is carried forward by powerful technological innovation and declining costs, the green energy boom may prove less robust than many of us hope.  

The EU has to renew the Next Generation EU commitments beyond 2026 to prevent the support offered to the Green Deal drying up. Following the European parliament elections in 2019, the direction of policy was clearly green. After the EU elections last month, with the shift to the right, that is no longer the case. The French legislative elections are likely to reinforce the turn against an accelerated green policy. Marine Le Pen’s camp are not climate sceptics like Donald Trump. But one of the Rassemblement National’s firmest promises is to lower the price of diesel for its van-driving constituency.