The African National Congress appeared on course to lose its outright majority for the first time since the start of multi-party elections in 1994 that followed the end of apartheid.

With 11.3 per cent of the national vote counted the ANC was on 42.8 per cent — worse than many polls had predicted, although analysts cautioned that this could increase. The main opposition Democratic Alliance was doing better than expected with 25.5 per cent, and Julius Malema’s radical Economic Freedom Fighters was on 8.2 per cent.

A model of predicted outcomes, developed by South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, put the ANC’s likely share of the final vote at 42 per cent and the DA at 22.27 per cent, based on its projected turnout of 57 per cent. Pravesh Debba, its project leader, said there was a margin of error of 2 percentage points.