Investing is not immune to passing fashions. In recent years, it has mainly been a macro game, with Fed tea-leaf readers, consumer-spending trackers and China analysts much in demand. Big shifts have sunk whole sectors and lifted others — think AI and defence. Luxury groups, too, rode a post-pandemic spending wave. No longer: it is time to bring back the untrendy art of stock picking.
Look no further than Kering’s dramatic sales warning this week. The French giant, controlled by billionaire Fran?ois-Henri Pinault, expects first-quarter sales down 10 per cent — compared to consensus expectations of a 3 per cent fall — driven by a near 20 per cent collapse at Gucci. Worse still, the group blamed the slump on the all-important Asia-Pacific consumer, the health of which keeps sector investors up at night.
That’s given rise to a predictable slew of luxury concerns. Kering slumped 12 per cent on Wednesday. But shares in LVMH, Richemont and Dior were off too, on fears that the softening of China’s luxury growth might turn into a crash.