The semiconductor industry has begun the year with growing confidence that it left its latest cyclical downturn behind in 2023, as analysts hail a “turning point” for the $600bn market.

But behind headline forecasts of a double-digit recovery in chip spending this year lies uncertainty about how broadly based that bounceback will be, as rising demand for the high-priced processors designed for artificial intelligence is offset by a more muted outlook in other parts of the tech sector.

The latest figures from the US-based Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents most global chipmakers, show that worldwide sales climbed to $48bn in November, rising on both an annual and quarterly basis for the first time in more than a year. Monthly sales peaked above $50bn during the first half of 2022.