Less than two months ago, the angst running through markets was real. Who will buy US government bonds? Are we standing on the precipice of a buyers’ strike that destabilises global markets?
It now looks safe to say the answers to those questions are: lots of people actually, and no. Worrying about how investors will absorb the vast and swiftly swelling flood of newly issued Treasuries made sense then and it still makes sense to factor it in now. The growing borrowing requirement of the US government is likely to keep prices a little lower, and therefore yields a little higher, than they might otherwise be.
But while this will be a hot topic for years to come, “bonds are not potatoes” as HSBC’s bond strategy supremo Steven Major is always keen to stress. The equation is not quite as simple as “more bonds mean lower prices”. Few are compelled to consume spuds for regulatory reasons, for example, and tubers are a poor store of long-term value.